{"id":10756,"date":"2023-01-17T17:47:32","date_gmt":"2023-01-17T17:47:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/elizabethjebef.com\/?p=10756"},"modified":"2023-01-17T17:47:34","modified_gmt":"2023-01-17T17:47:34","slug":"looking-to-past-recessions-for-a-lens-on-todays-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/elizabethjebef.com\/?p=10756","title":{"rendered":"Looking to Past Recessions for a Lens on Today&#8217;s Market"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As talk about a potential recession grows, you may be wondering what a recession could mean for the housing market. Here\u2019s a look at the historical data to show what happened in real estate during previous recessions to help curb fears of what a recession could mean for the\u00a0housing market\u00a0today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>A Recession Doesn\u2019t Always Mean Falling Home Prices<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To show that home prices don\u2019t fall every time there\u2019s a\u00a0<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.corelogic.com\/blog\/2019\/03\/housing-recessions-and-recoveries.aspx\" target=\"_blank\">recession<\/a>, it helps to turn to\u00a0<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.thebalance.com\/the-history-of-recessions-in-the-united-states-3306011\" target=\"_blank\">historical data<\/a>.  Looking at recessions going back to 1980,\u00a0home prices\u00a0appreciated in four of the last six of them including 1980, 1981, 2001 and 2020.  Historically, when the economy slows down, it doesn\u2019t mean home values will always fall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Most people remember the\u00a0housing crisis\u00a0in 2008 and think another recession would be a repeat of what happened to housing then. But today\u2019s housing market\u00a0isn\u2019t about to crash\u00a0because the fundamentals of the market are different than they were in 2008. According to\u00a0experts, home prices will vary by market and may go up or down depending on the local area. But the average of their\u00a02023 forecasts\u00a0shows prices will net neutral nationwide, not fall drastically like they did in 2008.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>A Recession Means Falling Mortgage Rates<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/mtg-specialists.com\/2022\/05\/11\/recession-interest-rates-and-real-estate\/\" target=\"_blank\">Research<\/a>\u00a0also helps paint the picture of how a recession could impact the cost of financing a home.  Historically, each time the economy slowed down,\u00a0<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freddiemac.com\/pmms\/archive\" target=\"_blank\">mortgage rates<\/a>\u00a0decreased in 1980, 1981 1991, 2001, 2008 and 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Fortune<\/em>&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2019\/06\/19\/next-recession-assets-mortgage-rates\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">explains<\/a>&nbsp;mortgage rates typically fall during an economic slowdown:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u201c<strong>Over the past five recessions, mortgage rates have fallen an average of 1.8 percentage points from the peak seen during the recession to the trough.&nbsp;<\/strong>And in many cases, they continued to fall after the fact as it takes some time to turn things around even when the recession is technically over.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In\u00a02023, market experts say mortgage rates will likely stabilize below the peak we saw last year. That\u2019s because\u00a0mortgage rates\u00a0tend to respond to inflation. And early signs show inflation is starting to cool. If inflation continues to ease, rates may fall a bit more, but the days of 3% are likely behind us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The big takeaway is you don\u2019t need to fear the word recession when it comes to housing. In fact, experts predict housing will play a key role in a quick economic rebound. As the 2022 CEO Outlook from KPMG,\u00a0<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/home.kpmg\/xx\/en\/home\/media\/press-releases\/2022\/09\/global-ceo-short-recession-optimistic-global-economy-over-3-years.html\" target=\"_blank\">says<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u201cGlobal CEOs see a \u2018mild and short\u2019 recession, yet optimistic about global economy over 3-year horizon . . .<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>&nbsp;<\/em><em>More than 8 out of 10 anticipate a recession over the next 12 months, with&nbsp;<strong>more than half expecting it to be mild and short<\/strong>.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While history doesn\u2019t always repeat itself, we can learn from the past. According to historical data, in most recessions, home values have appreciated and mortgage rates have declined.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you\u2019re thinking about buying or selling a home this year, let\u2019s connect so you have expert advice on what\u2019s happening in the housing market and what that means for your homeownership goals.  I look forward to putting my resources to work for you. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>17 January 2023 ~ As talk about a potential recession grows, you may be wondering what a recession could mean for the housing market. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[225,240,241,87],"tags":[231,232],"class_list":["post-10756","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-home-buyers","category-home-sellers","category-housing-market","category-trends","tag-home-values","tag-housing-market"],"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"elizabethjebef","author_link":"https:\/\/elizabethjebef.com\/?author=2"},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/elizabethjebef.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10756","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/elizabethjebef.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/elizabethjebef.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/elizabethjebef.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/elizabethjebef.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10756"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/elizabethjebef.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10756\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/elizabethjebef.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10756"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/elizabethjebef.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10756"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/elizabethjebef.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10756"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}